Playing ''What If...'' With Round Robins

The Tool In A Nutshell

Set up your groups. Pre-populate the match results you already have as a base case. Then go nuts, exploring the ''What Ifs'', as we enter the latter half of the group stage.

In case you just want to get going, pick either the Blue League or the Gold League from the dropdown box in the top-left of the program window and click ''Start Simulation''.

Making Temporary Table Changes

When creating or editing a group, it is possible to account for matches which have already taken place and no longer need to be simulated.

These are saved as a base case and then serve as the starting point for your exploration.

It is, however, also possible to make only temporary changes to the table for just one simulation run. Cells with a dark background have to be changed in ''Manage Groups'', as they are part of the group's base scenario.

To set the result of a match, double-click the corresponding cell. This will cycle through Blank -> W -> L -> D -> Blank, and any changes you make to one side of the match will automatically be applied to the other side of the match as well.

The Simulation Process

With the number of match results left open, the number of cases to be evaluated increases exponentially.

One match left? 3 options - either wrestler wins or it's a draw.

Two matches? That's 3 x 3 combinations.

A full six-man group? That's 15 matches for a whopping 14,348,907 combinations.

This is the reason why we're limiting each group to six participants max - otherwise you'd end up making quite a few cups of coffee while waiting for an early-stage assessment of a 12-person group. With eight participants, RRS would have to check up to 30,903,154,382,632,612,361,920,641,803,529 combinations.

It's not getting done in your lifetime... or mine.

Understanding The Results

With the modified group results shown above, you end up with this table.

For every wrestler, it lists how many scenarios end with this wrestler finishing first, how many times they're the runner-up and what percentage of all valid cases this represents.

''Valid'' being the key word. With 3 points for a win and 1 point for a draw, you will often end up with wrestlers tied for 1st/2nd or 2nd/3rd place.

To break a tie, you'd look at how everybody tied with the same number of points did against each other.

Say Okada, Fletcher, and PAC end up at 9 points each. Okada beat PAC but lost to Fletcher. PAC drew Fletcher but lost to Okada. Fletcher beat Okada and drew PAC.

In this case, Okada gained 3 points against the other two, PAC ended up with 1 point for the draw, and Fletcher scored 4 points.

In this case, Kyle Fletcher would get 1st place, Kazuchika Okada would advance as runner-up, and PAC would be eliminated.

Now imagine a scenario where Okada beat PAC, PAC beat Fletcher, and Fletcher beat Okada. This is an ''unbreakable tie''.

All scenarios which can't unequivocally be resolved with two wrestlers advancing fall into this category and are excluded from this overview.

Browsing The Scenarios

The list on the lower right of the program window shows a list of a maximum of 20,000 individual group outcomes.

Runs with unbreakable ties are denoted by a ''(*)'' next to the run number.

Check ''Include Bad Runs'' to add these tied runs to the list.

Check ''Exclude Unlikely Runs'' to remove runs with results tables which just wouldn't happen in the real world. Specifically, a run is considered ''unlikely'' if more than two matches end in a draw.

Double-click any run to bring up its results table.

The first thing you should notice about this table is that four wrestlers - Kazuchika Okada, Kyle Fletcher, Kevin Knight, and Mike Bailey are tied with 9 points. So far, so good.

So why does the list above say that Kyle Fletcher and Mike Bailey are tied? What about the other two?

Looking at the table, this is how it shakes out:

Okada only beat Mike Bailey within the tied group. His other two wins were outside the group.
Fletcher beat Okada and Kevin Knight, giving him 6 points inside the group.
Knight beat Okada - 3 points.
Bailey beat Fletcher and Okada - 6 points.

Therefore, Kyle Fletcher and Mike Bailey are the only candidates qualified to advance - but under the current tournament rules, this tie for the top spot can't be resolved.

Managing Groups

Perhaps you'd like to alter one of the groups which came with the program. Or perhaps you'd like to create a tournament group of your own.

To do this, click ''Manage Groups''.

To edit an existing group, select it from the dropdown menu.

To create a new group, click ''New Group''.

Please provide a description for your group and add up to six wrestlers to the box below, one per line.

When you're done making changes, click ''Save Changes''. To return to the main screen without saving, click ''Cancel''.

Set Up Your Base Case

Finally - and this step is optional -, you may pre-populate some of the group's match results and save this selection as your base case.

These results will then always be brought up on the main screen when you pick a group from the dropdown menu.

Any changes you make here are permanent. Any changes you make on the main screen are temporary.

When you're happy with your selections, click ''Save As Basis For Simulation'', then click ''Start Simulation'', and off we go.

Example Use Case

If I were trying to set up a certain two wrestlers to advance, but also wanted to have some specific results occur, this is how I'd go about it:

- Create the group
- Prepopulate the results grid with the results I want
- Save this as my base case, then run the simulation
- Look for the two people I want to advance and then double-click the name of the less likely person to advance in the results overview.
- All possible runs which would get us to where we need to be are now listed on the right side.
- Double-click each of the runs to bring up its final results table; pick the one which suits the intended subplots best